MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS ON ECOWAS MEMBER COUNTRIES


By

Moses K. Tule[1]

Udoma J. Afangideh[2]

Augustine Ujunwa[3]

 

 

Abstract

The current global commodity price shocks have raised serious questions on the viability of regional blocks whose countries are predominantly commodity-based. In ECOWAS for example, there is preponderance of evidence that primary products are the main source of foreign exchange to member countries, thereby making them susceptible to similar shocks. This paper intends to examine the sources of external shocks to member countries of ECOWAS with the aim of establishing the existence of complementarity amongst them. Using panel methodology and monthly data, we shall analyze the macroeconomic effects of commodity price shocks, from 2007-2015, on output, export earnings government revenue and degree of openness. We also intend to validate the estimated result by carrying out robustness checks.



[1] Director, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria

[2] Principal Economist, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria

[3] Economist, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria


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